Prediction markets
Expectations beneath the headlines
Rate decisions, inflation, payrolls, unemployment and recession: six different views of what participants expect next.
Study through Oct 15, 2026
Six questions, six different units
These derived series follow participants’ expectations for the next unresolved macro event. The latest 90 stored observations are shown, not live contracts.
Fed rate and inflation are percentages; the next Fed move is in basis points; payrolls are jobs; recession is a probability. A roll to the next event can reset the level.
Does the repricing lead QQQ?
| Question | Observations | Same-day r | Same-day t | Next-day r | Next-day t |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected Fed rate after next meeting | 551 | +0.014 | +0.32 | −0.063 | −1.40 |
| Expected size of next Fed move | 680 | −0.056 | −1.42 | −0.033 | −0.83 |
| Expected next monthly CPI change | 639 | −0.047 | −1.13 | −0.068 | −1.63 |
| Expected next payrolls print | 666 | +0.080 | +1.98 | −0.015 | −0.36 |
| Expected next unemployment rate | 634 | −0.033 | −0.79 | −0.039 | −0.94 |
| Recession odds | 676 | −0.096 | −2.40 | +0.054 | +1.34 |
No general next-day relationship reaches |t| ≥ 3 in these six series. Conditional sharp-repricing results in the full study use small samples and need fresh evidence.
Timing is part of the question
The study samples market readings before 3 PM ET and measures subsequent daily returns. It excludes price changes across switches from one event to the next. The plots here retain daily levels, so visible jumps can include event rolls.
Expectations can be useful context even when they do not forecast the next day’s equity return. They should not be presented as official releases, verified future outcomes or a current trade recommendation.
What this view establishes
- The series are derived from Kalshi contract prices and sampled before 3 PM ET on trading days.
- Each daily value follows the next unresolved event. Lines can change when that event rolls; measured changes in the study exclude switches between events.
- The latest 90 stored observations are shown here, with their last observation date. They are a dated research snapshot, not live odds or an official forecast.
- Same-day association and next-day lead are tested separately. A plausible macro narrative does not establish predictive value.