Jacob E. ChandranRésumé PDF ↗︎

Data & original research

Insights

See the distribution. Follow the evidence.

Stock sentiment

Where today’s tone sits in its own history ↗︎

TickerTone scorePercentile
−1Negative0Neutral+1Positive
QQQQQQ: 194 active 15-minute bars; 5th −0.305, Q1 −0.001, median +0.067, Q3 +0.283, 95th +0.475. Latest +0.063 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.51stAAPLAAPL: 398 active 15-minute bars; 5th −0.240, Q1 −0.077, median +0.041, Q3 +0.176, 95th +0.445. Latest +0.038 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.45thAMDAMD: 259 active 15-minute bars; 5th −0.447, Q1 −0.005, median +0.287, Q3 +0.475, 95th +0.627. Latest +0.312 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.55thAMZNAMZN: 517 active 15-minute bars; 5th −0.023, Q1 +0.091, median +0.233, Q3 +0.354, 95th +0.512. Latest +0.153 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.41stGOOGLGOOGL: 591 active 15-minute bars; 5th −0.115, Q1 +0.074, median +0.225, Q3 +0.362, 95th +0.543. Latest −0.075 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.9thMETAMETA: 528 active 15-minute bars; 5th −0.165, Q1 +0.070, median +0.264, Q3 +0.386, 95th +0.565. Latest +0.184 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.39thMSFTMSFT: 540 active 15-minute bars; 5th −0.053, Q1 +0.141, median +0.266, Q3 +0.357, 95th +0.604. Latest +0.352 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.77thMUMU: 378 active 15-minute bars; 5th −0.354, Q1 −0.005, median +0.178, Q3 +0.339, 95th +0.571. Latest +0.114 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.43rdNVDANVDA: 791 active 15-minute bars; 5th +0.010, Q1 +0.210, median +0.323, Q3 +0.436, 95th +0.546. Latest +0.321 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.52ndTSLATSLA: 352 active 15-minute bars; 5th −0.577, Q1 −0.371, median −0.097, Q3 +0.097, 95th +0.301. Latest −0.184 at 2026-10-15T23:45:00+00:00. Percentile approximate.45th

Box: middle 50% · line: median · whiskers: 5th–95th · dot: latest

Percentile compares the latest tone with this ticker’s own readings, not other stocks. A positive score can still rank low.

Lowest 10%Middle 80%Highest 10%of this ticker’s tone history

The RLTrade box plots compare each stock’s latest news or tweet tone with its own 30-day distribution. Select a stock to see the context behind the dot.

Latest Oct 15, 7:45 PM EDT

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Markets & macro

Where liquidity is moving ↗︎

Fed assets$6,747.6BFed assets; 2026-04-08 to 2026-10-07
Treasury cash$880.3BTreasury cash; 2026-04-08 to 2026-10-07
Reverse repo$201.0MReverse repo; 2026-09-04 to 2026-10-14
10Y–2Y curve+0.42 pp10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread; 2026-06-04 to 2026-10-13

Fed assets changed $12.0B over 13 weeks. Treasury cash and reverse repo show the other side of the cash picture.

Rates Oct 13, 2026 · Fed Oct 7, 2026

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Event response

What happens after the headline? ↗︎

Event responses: next-day mean excess return and 95% bootstrap intervals, basis points in the event directiondowngradeAnalyst downgrade, 24 events; next-day mean -130.0 basis points in the event's direction; 95% bootstrap interval -334.8 to 39.5upgradeAnalyst upgrade, 45 events; next-day mean 104.0 basis points in the event's direction; 95% bootstrap interval 11.2 to 199.4Earnings missEarnings miss, 4 events; next-day mean 104.7 basis points in the event's direction; interval unavailable (only four events)Earnings beatEarnings beat, 39 events; next-day mean -125.0 basis points in the event's direction; 95% bootstrap interval -227.4 to -25.0− news burstNegative news burst, 102 events; next-day mean -27.0 basis points in the event's direction; 95% bootstrap interval -86.3 to 32.8+ news burstPositive news burst, 595 events; next-day mean -17.9 basis points in the event's direction; 95% bootstrap interval -37.3 to 3.0−4000+200

Event-direction return · bp · 95% intervals

Upgrades, earnings surprises and news bursts do not behave alike. Compare the average response with the interval and sample behind it.

Jun 2, 2025–Oct 15, 2026

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Prediction markets

Expectations beneath the headlines ↗︎

Expected Fed rate after next meeting3.95%Expected Fed rate after next meeting; 2026-06-05 to 2026-10-15
Expected next monthly CPI change0.25%Expected next monthly CPI change; 2026-06-09 to 2026-10-15
Recession odds4.0%Recession odds; 2026-06-09 to 2026-10-15

Rate decisions, inflation, payrolls, unemployment and recession: six different views of what participants expect next.

Study through Oct 15, 2026

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Policy & capital

Follow the commitments across sectors ↗︎

Federal contract obligations: changes across all eleven tracked sector groupingsBasic MaterialsBasic Materials: +3.642 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12FinancialFinancial Services: +3.481 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12EnergyEnergy: +0.896 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12Real EstateReal Estate: +0.121 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12HealthcareHealthcare: −0.006 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12Cons. CyclicalConsumer Cyclical: −0.350 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12UtilitiesUtilities: −0.641 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12Cons. DefensiveConsumer Defensive: −0.812 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12CommunicationCommunication Services: −1.103 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12TechnologyTechnology: −3.408 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12IndustrialsIndustrials: −26.856 billion dollars change in contract obligations; latest 12 full months versus previous 12Change in contract obligations · USD billions

All eleven tracked industry groupings, including the declines. Two full 12-month windows show where federal commitments changed.

12 months through Sep 2026

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Research distributions

The result is a distribution ↗︎

Return distribution across retrospective research tests; boxes are quartiles, whiskers full ranges; gold marks matched SPYTechnologytechnology: 78 retrospective full-window tests; return min, Q1, median, Q3, max: 29.28%, 67.05%, 90.92%, 118.71%, 158.95%Matched SPY +12.0%Energyenergy: 12 retrospective full-window tests; return min, Q1, median, Q3, max: 1.77%, 25.16%, 29.30%, 43.78%, 49.51%Matched SPY +12.0%Healthcarehealthcare: 10 retrospective full-window tests; return min, Q1, median, Q3, max: -19.18%, -14.34%, -12.62%, -9.53%, -6.68%Matched SPY +12.0%Utilitiesutilities: 12 retrospective full-window tests; return min, Q1, median, Q3, max: -12.42%, -8.09%, -3.21%, 0.67%, 10.45%Matched SPY +12.0%−19%0%+159%

Quartiles & full range · gold: SPY

Compare the middle, spread, benchmark and drawdown across technology, energy and healthcare research cohorts.

Snapshot Oct 16, 2026

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